Słowa kluczowe
Zbiornik stalowy
Korozja
Prognoza trwałości
Pozostający czas zdatności
Czas do awarii
Korozja
Prognoza trwałości
Pozostający czas zdatności
Czas do awarii
Abstrakt
Zaprezentowano przykład numeryczny pozwalający na efektywną prognozę pozostającego czasu zdatności skorodowanej stalowej powłoki zbiornika używanego do magazynowania ropopochodnych paliw płynnych. Czas ten jest interpretowany jako okres liczony od momentu obligatoryjnej oceny stanu technicznego obiektu do antycypowanej w przyszłości chwili jego awarii, rozumianej jako wyczerpanie możliwości bezpiecznego przenoszenia obciążeń. Osiągnięcie granicznej wartości prawdopodobieństwa zawodu, maksymalnej możliwej do zaakceptowania przez użytkownika obiektu, jest w tym podejściu wyznacznikiem chwili awarii. Szczegółowe rozważania dotyczą typowego, naziemnego zbiornika magazynowego z dachem pływającym, zlokalizowanego w jednej z baz paliwowych Polski południowej. Prognoza została opracowana na podstawie pomiarów losowej grubości powłoki, osłabionej przez oddziaływanie korozji, wykonanych po 27 latach użytkowania zbiornika. W rekomendowanym podejściu wykorzystano w pełni probabilistyczne procedury obliczeniowe. Takie ujęcie prowadzi do lepiej uzasadnionych i mniej konserwatywnych ocen pozostającego czasu zdatności w zestawieniu z analogicznymi ocenami otrzymanymi na podstawie tradycyjnego podejścia normowego. W celach porównawczych w opisie proponowanego algorytmu zastosowano jakościowo różne jakkolwiek odpowiadające sobie miary bezpieczeństwa.
Bibliografia
[1] Maślak M., Siudut J., Deterioration of steel properties in corroded sheets applied to side surface of tanks for liquid fuels, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 14(3), 2008, 169-176, https://doi.org/10.3846/1392-3730.2008.14.13.
[2] Palmeira T., Navas H., Morgado T., Lean maintenance management activities in an oil terminal: case study, Paper 5579, Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Mechanics and Materials in Design (M2D'2015), July 26-30, 2015, Ponta Delgada, Azores, Portugal.
[3] Ghaithan A.M., An optimization model for operational planning and turnaround maintenance scheduling of oil and gas supply chain, Applied Sciences, 10, 7531, 2020, https://doi.org/10.3390/app10217531.
[4] Garbatov Y., Guedes Soares C., Rizzo C.M., Rizzuto E., Ok D., Pu Y., Rouhan A., Parmentier G., Modelling strength degradation phenomena and inspections used for reliability assessment based on maintenance planning, Proceedings of 25th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering (OMAE 2006), June 4-9, 2006, Hamburg, Germany, https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2006-92090.
[5] Di Sarno L., Majidian A., Karagiannakis G., The effect of atmospheric corrosion on steel structures: a state-of-the-art and case-study, Buildings, 11(12), 571, 2021, https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings11120571.
[6] Feliu Jr S., Morcillo A., The prediction of atmospheric corrosion from meteorological and pollution parameters – I, Annual corrosion, Corrosion Science, 2013, https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-938X(93)90112-T.
[7] Feliu Jr S., Morcillo A., The prediction of atmospheric corrosion from meteorological and pollution parameters – II, Long-term forecasts, Corrosion Science, 2013, https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-938X(93)90113-U.
[8] How W., Liang C., Atmospheric Corrosion prediction of steels, Corrosion, 60, 2004, 313-322, https://doi.org/10.5006/1.3287737.
[9] Garverick L., Corrosion in the petrochemical industry, American Society for Metals, 1994.
[10] Harston J., Corrosion in refineries, Elsevier, 2014.
[11] Papavinasam S., Corrosion control in the oil and gas industry, Elsevier Science, 2013.
[12] Groysman A., Corrosion problems and solutions in oil, gas, refining and petrochemical industry, Koroze a Ochrana Materiálu, 61(3), 2017, 100-117, https://doi.org/10.1515/kom-2017-0013.
[13] Umeozokwere A.O., Mbabuike I.U., Oreko B.U., Ezemuo D.T., Corrosion rates and its impact on mild steel in some selected environments, Journal of Scientific and Engineering Research, 3(1), 2016, 34-43.
[14] Rim-Rukeh A., Okokoyo P.A., Underside corrosion of above ground storage tanks (ASTs), Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management, 9(1), 2005, 161-163.
[15] Maślak M., Siudut J., Corrosion rate measurement for steel sheets of a fuel tank shell being in service, Open Engineering, 11, 2021, 860-870, https://doi.org/10.1515/eng-2021-0086.
[16] Melchers R.E., Corrosion uncertainty modelling for steel structures, Journal of Constructional Steel Research, 52, 1999, 3-19, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0143-974X(99)00010-3.
[17] Guedes Soares C., Garbatov Y., Zayed A., Wang G., Nonlinear corrosion model for immersed steel plates accounting for environmental factors, Transactions of the Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers (SNAME), 111, 2005, 194-211.
[18] Imteaz A., Aminul I., Nesar A., Determination of corrosion rate of mild steel in different medium measuring current density, Proceedings Of the International Conference on Mechanical Engineering and Renewable Energy (ICMERE), Chittagong, Bangladesh, December 18-20, 2017, 1-4.
[19] Melchers R.E., Predicting long-term corrosion of metal alloys in physical infrastructure, Materials Degradation, 4, 2019, 1-7, https://doi.org/10.38/s41529-018-0066-x.
[20] Di Lorenzo G., Rizzo F., Formisano A., Landolfo R., Guastaferro A., Corrosion wastage models for steel structures: literature review and a new interpretative formulation, Key Engineering Materials, 813, 2019, 209-214, http://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/KEM.813.209.
[21] Shengping Qin, Weicheng Cui, Effect of corrosion models on the time-dependent reliability of steel plated elements, Marine Structures, 16, 2003, 15-34, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8339(02)00028-X.
[22] Guedes Soares C., Garbatov Y., Reliability of maintained, corrosion protected plates subjected to nonlinear corrosion and compressive loads, Marine Structures, 12, 1999, 425-445, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8339(99)00028-3.
[23] Yamamoto N., Reliability-based criteria for measures to corrosion, Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering (OMAE 1998), Safety and Reliability Symposium, July 5-9, 1998, Lisbon, Portugal.
[24] Southwell C.R., Bultman J.D., Hummer Jr, C.W., Estimating of service life of steel in seawater, in: Schumacher M. (Ed.), Seawater corrosion handbook, Noyes Data Corporation, New Jersey, USA, 1979, 374-387.
[25] Melchers R.E., Probabilistic model for marine corrosion of steel for structural reliability assessment, Journal of Structural Engineering, 129, 11, 2003, 1484-1493, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2003)129:11(1484).
[26] Woloszyk K., Garbatov Y., Advances in modelling and analysis of strength of corroded ship structures, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 10(6), 807, 2022, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10060807.
[27] Gardiner C.P., Melchers R.E., Corrosion analysis of bulk carriers, Part I: Operational parameters influencing corrosion rates, Marine Structures, 16, 8, 2003, 547-566, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8339(01)00026-0.
[28] Paik J.K., Kim S.K., Lee S.K,. Probabilistic corrosion rate estimation model for longitudinal strength members of bulk carriers, Ocean Engineering, 25(10), 1998, 837-860.
[29] Ivošević Š., Meštrović R., Kovač N., Probabilistic estimates of corrosion rate of fuel tank structures of aging bulk carriers, International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, 11, 1, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijnaoe.2018.03.003.
[30] Maślak M., Pazdanowski M., Siudut J., Tarsa K., Corrosion durability estimation for steel shell of a tank used to store liquid fuels, Procedia Engineering, 172, 2017, 723-730, Special issue containing Proceedings of the 12th International Conference “Modern Building Materials, Structures and Techniques (MBMST)”, Vilnius, Lithuania, May 26-27, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.02.092.
[31] Maślak M., Pazdanowski M., Siudut J., Tarsa K., Analysis type influence on the durability prognosis for a steel tank corroded shell, ce/papers, vol. 1, issue 2-3, 2017, 848-857, Special issue containing Proceedings of Eurosteel 2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/cepa.125.
[32] Maślak M., Siudut J., Durability prediction of randomly corroded side surface sheet in steel on the ground tank for liquid fuel storage, Proceedings of the 4th International Conference “Recent Advances in Integrity – Reliability – Failure (IRF)”, Funchal, Madeira, Portugal, June 23-27, 2013, abstract 159-160 + CD 8 p.
[33] Maślak M., Pazdanowski M., Siudut J., Tarsa K., Probability-based durability prediction for corroded shell of steel cylindrical tank for liquid fuel storage, Proceedings of the 1st Workshop of COST Action TU1402: “Quantifying the Value of Structural Health Monitoring”, DTU Civil Engineering Report: R-336, Lyngby, Denmark, May 4-5, 2015, 82-95.
[34] Maślak M., Pazdanowski M., Time-to-failure forecast for corroded shell of above-ground steel tank used to store liquid fuels, Archives of Civil Engineering, vol. LXVII, issue 1, 2021, 303-322, https://doi.org/10.24425/ace.2020.136475.
[35] Maślak M,, Pazdanowski M., Probability-based remaining service time prediction for corroded shell of a steel tank used for liquid fuel storage, Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2029), September 22-26, 2019, Hannover, Germany, Research Publishing Services, Singapore, 2019, 3232-3239. http://dx.doi.org/10.3850/978-981-11-2724-3_0104-cd.
[36] EN 1993-4-2. Eurocode 3: Design of steel structures, Part 4-2: Tanks.
[37] Law Journal No 113, pos. 1211, Regulation of the Minister of Economy of September 18, 2001 on the technical conditions of technical inspection to be met by pressure and non-pressure vessels intended for the storage of flammable liquids (in Polish).
[38] Warszyński M., Niezawodność w obliczeniach konstrukcyjnych, PWN, Warszawa, 1988.
[2] Palmeira T., Navas H., Morgado T., Lean maintenance management activities in an oil terminal: case study, Paper 5579, Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Mechanics and Materials in Design (M2D'2015), July 26-30, 2015, Ponta Delgada, Azores, Portugal.
[3] Ghaithan A.M., An optimization model for operational planning and turnaround maintenance scheduling of oil and gas supply chain, Applied Sciences, 10, 7531, 2020, https://doi.org/10.3390/app10217531.
[4] Garbatov Y., Guedes Soares C., Rizzo C.M., Rizzuto E., Ok D., Pu Y., Rouhan A., Parmentier G., Modelling strength degradation phenomena and inspections used for reliability assessment based on maintenance planning, Proceedings of 25th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering (OMAE 2006), June 4-9, 2006, Hamburg, Germany, https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2006-92090.
[5] Di Sarno L., Majidian A., Karagiannakis G., The effect of atmospheric corrosion on steel structures: a state-of-the-art and case-study, Buildings, 11(12), 571, 2021, https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings11120571.
[6] Feliu Jr S., Morcillo A., The prediction of atmospheric corrosion from meteorological and pollution parameters – I, Annual corrosion, Corrosion Science, 2013, https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-938X(93)90112-T.
[7] Feliu Jr S., Morcillo A., The prediction of atmospheric corrosion from meteorological and pollution parameters – II, Long-term forecasts, Corrosion Science, 2013, https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-938X(93)90113-U.
[8] How W., Liang C., Atmospheric Corrosion prediction of steels, Corrosion, 60, 2004, 313-322, https://doi.org/10.5006/1.3287737.
[9] Garverick L., Corrosion in the petrochemical industry, American Society for Metals, 1994.
[10] Harston J., Corrosion in refineries, Elsevier, 2014.
[11] Papavinasam S., Corrosion control in the oil and gas industry, Elsevier Science, 2013.
[12] Groysman A., Corrosion problems and solutions in oil, gas, refining and petrochemical industry, Koroze a Ochrana Materiálu, 61(3), 2017, 100-117, https://doi.org/10.1515/kom-2017-0013.
[13] Umeozokwere A.O., Mbabuike I.U., Oreko B.U., Ezemuo D.T., Corrosion rates and its impact on mild steel in some selected environments, Journal of Scientific and Engineering Research, 3(1), 2016, 34-43.
[14] Rim-Rukeh A., Okokoyo P.A., Underside corrosion of above ground storage tanks (ASTs), Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management, 9(1), 2005, 161-163.
[15] Maślak M., Siudut J., Corrosion rate measurement for steel sheets of a fuel tank shell being in service, Open Engineering, 11, 2021, 860-870, https://doi.org/10.1515/eng-2021-0086.
[16] Melchers R.E., Corrosion uncertainty modelling for steel structures, Journal of Constructional Steel Research, 52, 1999, 3-19, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0143-974X(99)00010-3.
[17] Guedes Soares C., Garbatov Y., Zayed A., Wang G., Nonlinear corrosion model for immersed steel plates accounting for environmental factors, Transactions of the Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers (SNAME), 111, 2005, 194-211.
[18] Imteaz A., Aminul I., Nesar A., Determination of corrosion rate of mild steel in different medium measuring current density, Proceedings Of the International Conference on Mechanical Engineering and Renewable Energy (ICMERE), Chittagong, Bangladesh, December 18-20, 2017, 1-4.
[19] Melchers R.E., Predicting long-term corrosion of metal alloys in physical infrastructure, Materials Degradation, 4, 2019, 1-7, https://doi.org/10.38/s41529-018-0066-x.
[20] Di Lorenzo G., Rizzo F., Formisano A., Landolfo R., Guastaferro A., Corrosion wastage models for steel structures: literature review and a new interpretative formulation, Key Engineering Materials, 813, 2019, 209-214, http://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/KEM.813.209.
[21] Shengping Qin, Weicheng Cui, Effect of corrosion models on the time-dependent reliability of steel plated elements, Marine Structures, 16, 2003, 15-34, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8339(02)00028-X.
[22] Guedes Soares C., Garbatov Y., Reliability of maintained, corrosion protected plates subjected to nonlinear corrosion and compressive loads, Marine Structures, 12, 1999, 425-445, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8339(99)00028-3.
[23] Yamamoto N., Reliability-based criteria for measures to corrosion, Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering (OMAE 1998), Safety and Reliability Symposium, July 5-9, 1998, Lisbon, Portugal.
[24] Southwell C.R., Bultman J.D., Hummer Jr, C.W., Estimating of service life of steel in seawater, in: Schumacher M. (Ed.), Seawater corrosion handbook, Noyes Data Corporation, New Jersey, USA, 1979, 374-387.
[25] Melchers R.E., Probabilistic model for marine corrosion of steel for structural reliability assessment, Journal of Structural Engineering, 129, 11, 2003, 1484-1493, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2003)129:11(1484).
[26] Woloszyk K., Garbatov Y., Advances in modelling and analysis of strength of corroded ship structures, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 10(6), 807, 2022, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10060807.
[27] Gardiner C.P., Melchers R.E., Corrosion analysis of bulk carriers, Part I: Operational parameters influencing corrosion rates, Marine Structures, 16, 8, 2003, 547-566, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8339(01)00026-0.
[28] Paik J.K., Kim S.K., Lee S.K,. Probabilistic corrosion rate estimation model for longitudinal strength members of bulk carriers, Ocean Engineering, 25(10), 1998, 837-860.
[29] Ivošević Š., Meštrović R., Kovač N., Probabilistic estimates of corrosion rate of fuel tank structures of aging bulk carriers, International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, 11, 1, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijnaoe.2018.03.003.
[30] Maślak M., Pazdanowski M., Siudut J., Tarsa K., Corrosion durability estimation for steel shell of a tank used to store liquid fuels, Procedia Engineering, 172, 2017, 723-730, Special issue containing Proceedings of the 12th International Conference “Modern Building Materials, Structures and Techniques (MBMST)”, Vilnius, Lithuania, May 26-27, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.02.092.
[31] Maślak M., Pazdanowski M., Siudut J., Tarsa K., Analysis type influence on the durability prognosis for a steel tank corroded shell, ce/papers, vol. 1, issue 2-3, 2017, 848-857, Special issue containing Proceedings of Eurosteel 2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/cepa.125.
[32] Maślak M., Siudut J., Durability prediction of randomly corroded side surface sheet in steel on the ground tank for liquid fuel storage, Proceedings of the 4th International Conference “Recent Advances in Integrity – Reliability – Failure (IRF)”, Funchal, Madeira, Portugal, June 23-27, 2013, abstract 159-160 + CD 8 p.
[33] Maślak M., Pazdanowski M., Siudut J., Tarsa K., Probability-based durability prediction for corroded shell of steel cylindrical tank for liquid fuel storage, Proceedings of the 1st Workshop of COST Action TU1402: “Quantifying the Value of Structural Health Monitoring”, DTU Civil Engineering Report: R-336, Lyngby, Denmark, May 4-5, 2015, 82-95.
[34] Maślak M., Pazdanowski M., Time-to-failure forecast for corroded shell of above-ground steel tank used to store liquid fuels, Archives of Civil Engineering, vol. LXVII, issue 1, 2021, 303-322, https://doi.org/10.24425/ace.2020.136475.
[35] Maślak M,, Pazdanowski M., Probability-based remaining service time prediction for corroded shell of a steel tank used for liquid fuel storage, Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2029), September 22-26, 2019, Hannover, Germany, Research Publishing Services, Singapore, 2019, 3232-3239. http://dx.doi.org/10.3850/978-981-11-2724-3_0104-cd.
[36] EN 1993-4-2. Eurocode 3: Design of steel structures, Part 4-2: Tanks.
[37] Law Journal No 113, pos. 1211, Regulation of the Minister of Economy of September 18, 2001 on the technical conditions of technical inspection to be met by pressure and non-pressure vessels intended for the storage of flammable liquids (in Polish).
[38] Warszyński M., Niezawodność w obliczeniach konstrukcyjnych, PWN, Warszawa, 1988.
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